Spring Break
Column: Super Tuesday Leaves no Democratic Frontrunner
Mark Jia
Issue date: 1/8/08 Section: Opinion
The much-touted "Tsunami Tuesday" amounted to little more than a ripple in terms of changing the landscape of the Democratic race.
For that party, unique electoral rules predominated by a system of proportional representation virtually ensured a night with no breakaway frontrunner. Anticipating a long and drawn out nominating process, both campaigns launched operations in states where victory was unlikely with the intent of capturing delegates at the margin. As evidence, Hillary's campaign sent chief surrogate Bill Clinton to Obama's home state of Illinois days before Super/Super-Duper/Tsunami Tuesday. Hillary Clinton secured important victories in states like New York, Tennessee, Oklahoma, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, which many pundits deemed stolen from Hillary after the state's governor and two senators endorsed Senator Obama. He similarly took home a large pile of hard-won delegates, largely from states like Georgia, Illinois, Alabama, Connecticut and Minnesota.
In the days leading up to Tsunami Tuesday, senior advisors from both Democratic campaigns endeavored furiously to lower expectations. Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe noted that closing Clinton's margin of victory by 100 delegates would amount to a definitive victory for the junior Senator from Illinois, while Clinton advisors confided not-so-privately to members of the press corps that trends in California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts comprised a substantive cause for worry. The momentum, however, was firmly in the hands of Senator Obama, who secured the key Democratic endorsements of Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Caroline Kennedy, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, and California First Lady Maria Shriver.
The conversation now turns to the remaining 22 states for the Democrats, where Obama enjoys advantageous leads in states like Maryland and Hawaii. The goal for Tsunami Tuesday was to maintain the Senator's momentum well enough to carry through and sweep many of the subsequent states, a goal that was met handily. Likewise the Clinton camp continues to stay strong and forge ahead to those states where strong establishment ties still dominate the political arena (read: the delegate-rich state of Pennsylvania).
There were few surprises on the Republican side, where a system of winner-take-all elections, coupled with a drastically downsized candidate pool, seemed to point to a relatively quicker nomination process. McCain secured major victories in an array of Super Tuesday states, including Illinois, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and New York, where the recent endorsement of Mayor Giuliani did much to widen margins for the Arizona senator. Romney won the obvious states of Utah and Massachusetts (though McCain worked hard to embarrass the Michigan native in the state where he was governor). Yet Romney's strong showing in California, coupled with the staunch support of hard-line conservatives, will likely keep him buoyant for some time.
For that party, unique electoral rules predominated by a system of proportional representation virtually ensured a night with no breakaway frontrunner. Anticipating a long and drawn out nominating process, both campaigns launched operations in states where victory was unlikely with the intent of capturing delegates at the margin. As evidence, Hillary's campaign sent chief surrogate Bill Clinton to Obama's home state of Illinois days before Super/Super-Duper/Tsunami Tuesday. Hillary Clinton secured important victories in states like New York, Tennessee, Oklahoma, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, which many pundits deemed stolen from Hillary after the state's governor and two senators endorsed Senator Obama. He similarly took home a large pile of hard-won delegates, largely from states like Georgia, Illinois, Alabama, Connecticut and Minnesota.
In the days leading up to Tsunami Tuesday, senior advisors from both Democratic campaigns endeavored furiously to lower expectations. Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe noted that closing Clinton's margin of victory by 100 delegates would amount to a definitive victory for the junior Senator from Illinois, while Clinton advisors confided not-so-privately to members of the press corps that trends in California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts comprised a substantive cause for worry. The momentum, however, was firmly in the hands of Senator Obama, who secured the key Democratic endorsements of Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Caroline Kennedy, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, and California First Lady Maria Shriver.
The conversation now turns to the remaining 22 states for the Democrats, where Obama enjoys advantageous leads in states like Maryland and Hawaii. The goal for Tsunami Tuesday was to maintain the Senator's momentum well enough to carry through and sweep many of the subsequent states, a goal that was met handily. Likewise the Clinton camp continues to stay strong and forge ahead to those states where strong establishment ties still dominate the political arena (read: the delegate-rich state of Pennsylvania).
There were few surprises on the Republican side, where a system of winner-take-all elections, coupled with a drastically downsized candidate pool, seemed to point to a relatively quicker nomination process. McCain secured major victories in an array of Super Tuesday states, including Illinois, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and New York, where the recent endorsement of Mayor Giuliani did much to widen margins for the Arizona senator. Romney won the obvious states of Utah and Massachusetts (though McCain worked hard to embarrass the Michigan native in the state where he was governor). Yet Romney's strong showing in California, coupled with the staunch support of hard-line conservatives, will likely keep him buoyant for some time.
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