Spring Break
China's Economic Stimulus Package: The Social and Political Consequences If It Fails
Natalie Kim '12
Issue date: 2/3/09 Section: Opinion
As the global economy plummets in what is coming to be known as the worst economic crisis since 1929, the world's attention turns to China, which has enjoyed extraordinary economic growth in the last several decades. It currently holds an essential place in the world's manufacturing output and consumption of raw materials, and consequently, also has considerable influence over world trade. Having thus far traded repression for the prospects of economic prosperity, the ruling Communist Party's prospects may seem precarious. Given China's unique position as a rising economic superpower under an authoritarian regime, and with the international economy at stake, the economic and political consequences for China amidst the world economic downturn have become a pressing issue.
Statistics regarding China's current economic health are alarming: millions of workers are losing their jobs, and frequent riots and protests in rural areas are escalating in scale, with some involving tens of thousands of people. Production and consumption are both taking hits, as electricity production fell for the first time in a decade. Even the apparently insatiable demand for oil "declined sharply," according to China's national oil company. Experts are divided over the prospects of Chinese growth in the years to come: the more pessimistic, such as Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University, predict a "hard-landing" growth rate of only 6% or slightly higher for 2009 - a stark contrast to the 11% growth rates China has enjoyed in recent years. The more optimistic, on the other hand, believe that China will be shielded from the worst of the economic shock by achieving growth levels of 8% or more, citing some unique traits that China possesses. The Beijing-based economist Arthur Kroeber claims that because of the demographic changes that have taken effect since 1976, which resulted in more disposable income and less dependents per person from the one-child policy, the economy will be shielded from much of the recession. Also, urbanization and imported technology may further protect the Chinese economy.
Statistics regarding China's current economic health are alarming: millions of workers are losing their jobs, and frequent riots and protests in rural areas are escalating in scale, with some involving tens of thousands of people. Production and consumption are both taking hits, as electricity production fell for the first time in a decade. Even the apparently insatiable demand for oil "declined sharply," according to China's national oil company. Experts are divided over the prospects of Chinese growth in the years to come: the more pessimistic, such as Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University, predict a "hard-landing" growth rate of only 6% or slightly higher for 2009 - a stark contrast to the 11% growth rates China has enjoyed in recent years. The more optimistic, on the other hand, believe that China will be shielded from the worst of the economic shock by achieving growth levels of 8% or more, citing some unique traits that China possesses. The Beijing-based economist Arthur Kroeber claims that because of the demographic changes that have taken effect since 1976, which resulted in more disposable income and less dependents per person from the one-child policy, the economy will be shielded from much of the recession. Also, urbanization and imported technology may further protect the Chinese economy.
Viewing Comments 1 - 2 of 2
CV services UK
posted 12/23/09 @ 10:25 AM EST
Thanks for the information concerning China`s economic.
Essays order
posted 3/17/10 @ 8:50 AM EST
It's all quite predictable.
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